Thursday, July 16, 2009

Determining Values

I keep wondering, hoping really that stock fall a lot more.
That sounds like a horrible thing I'm sure, but my reason isn't just to watch other people needlessly suffer; no I have much grander, nobler dreams for mankind, like actual change.

The reason that I want the stocks to drop is because I don't think that many people will change their behavior over this, so far, fairly short recession. And I think that America would probably come out of this stronger and faster if we truly rushed to the bottom and then started climbing back out of this financial pit of despair.

It seems to me that people are still not letting stocks drop to a real value. Instead people continue trading, buying and selling with the hope that the recession will soon end and they will make money.

I think, however that by not letting the stocks fall people are prolonging the recession, lengthening out the inevitable decline. If everyone would sell off ,and not continue to falsely inflate values, we could get to the bottom of the recession and get back onto a path of growth. Sustainable growth.

My fear is that we may be entering an era akin to Japan's lost decade. A time of little to no economic growth.

Then again, maybe everything is fine, or will be soon like a number of experts are saying.

4 comments:

dfoster said...

I agree. Its highly unlikely that anyone is going to change their behavior (one of the roots of the problem) as a result of this recession. If we bounce back tomorrow, we're just going to go right back to the unsustainable model of reckless consumption that has dominated the market for decades and permeated the American ethos.

But I wonder if a model of sustainable living is even compatible with the fundamentals of capitalism. What do you think? Isn't a capitalist mentality all about growth? We can't grow forever.

What do you think?

Karma said...

I recently read a book for a statistics class "the lady tasting tea" (its about statistics in the 20th century) I got from it that the majority of people don't see the world in statistical sense, or don't understand what statistics mean. Like the stock, I don't think the majority of people think "Oh if the stocks go down money in stocks means something again and will better the economy" Anyway Happy Tuesday.

Daniel said...

I agree with your thesis. People need to really hit bottom before they change, and people are not hitting bottom. It would be nice to see people have to consume less, buy less and live more reasonably. On the other hand, I don't want the crap to hit the fan and affect me.

red said...

I think hitting the bottom builds a lot of character. It's remembering what the bottom feels like that is difficult. I think that's why so many of our great grandparents remained thrifty and almost hoarded things because they remembered what it was like to starve. I'm not so sure our generation will ever experience anything like that. Which isn't all bad. Interesting.